Somali Spring : From Bullets to Ballots?

I wish to express my gratitude to all the Speakers at the Nairobi Forum “Somali Spring”, organized by Rift Valley Institute. Thanks for the insights and eye opening talks. May God see Somalia move from bullets to ballots, and may this indeed be a Somali Spring.

Yesterday, I had the privilege of attending a Forum titled ‘Somali Spring’. Well, I found that title quite catchy and that’s probably one of the reasons I attended the forum. Most of the speakers were fast to denounce the title though: they had not coined that term and most seem to have cautious optimism and were not sure if this was a ‘spring’ as such. A probable step in the right direction, but they did express their concerns and fears. Is Somalia headed for some sort of redemption, or will all these politics play out as they did before? Just in case you have no idea on what I’m talking about, let me get you up to speed.  Somalia has been surviving on Transitional governments since 2004. The Transitional Federal Governments are what the international community recognizes as the functioning government in Somalia. Up until 20 August 2012 when they had to elect MPs and subsequently a president. I won’t get into these now; I will speak about the 'Somali Spring'.

When I heard the title Somali Spring, the first thought that came to mind was Arab Spring. The dynamics are definitely different. The Arab spring was a popular uprising against one ruler and this was at the national level and inspired hope of better life, better systems and so on to civilians. In Somalia, it was a fight against multiple people. The power struggles in Somalia are nothing new. We have the warlords, the Islamic radicals and other people who all want to lead Somalia. To Somalis, this time round was still a replay of past events. How many times have they seen people handpicked to rule them (from outside the Country) and not deliver? [One speaker mentioned, on a light note, a newsletter in Somalia had the title: 'Presidential Candidates Leave the Country after Elections']. Since the fall of Siad Barre, they thought it would all get better. 20+ years have gone by and the situation only gets worse. I personally feel that the TFG were not doing anything to better the war ravaged, once beautiful Somalia. They squandered the money, most of which is unaccounted for to date. Most of the money was pocketed by the great leaders of Somalia and never for the development of the country of civilians. TFG in TFG out, they all did the same thing. No institutions, no functioning systems, no peace, just fear and miserable lives. And get this, each time the TFG mandate came to an end and another one came in, they had to start from SCRATCH.

The New man in Somalia this time is a ‘fresher’ so to speak. He has never been involved in politics, he is just an educated elite. A Clean man. Not a previous warlord. Never fired a gun in his life and he became the President of Somalia. Maybe this is a sign that Somalia now wants to move from bullets to ballot boxes. He will face challenges though, owing to the fact that he is a newbie, people do not know him as such and he has no prior experience in politics. There may also be a culture that is unforgiving and harsh in the country. The leader needs to deliver and deliver FAST, or the people will think this is another puppet regime. Poor guy. He gets into power, no institutions in place, has a huge mandate with little capacity. Expectations may be high this time around, maybe this time it’s the REAL liberation. Other challenges that may face this regime include: dispensation of liberation space. Ok, our dear KDF et al. (under AMISOM) are hot on Al-Shabaab’s tail. BIG QUESTION: Who governs the vacuum left after Al-Shabaab disperses? The local community, the new government or the AMISOM peacekeepers? They all have legitimate claims of wanting or needing to govern the particular areas. So what happens? There is also the land dispute problem that has gone unresolved for 3 decades. The question of federalism, piracy and so on. The positive thing here is most of these can be resolved, gradually. There is an interim constitution, will people this time air their grievances democratically and go to the ballots instead of using bullets? Will they use this opportunity to demand for a change of clauses in the constitution, or the whole document altogether? This is not going to be easy, especially since the way of life they have gotten accustomed to is via bullets, but it isn't impossible.

They need to get to the root causes of all these conflicts and fighting. It will take time, but this is a high risk moment which provides an important opportunity that every actor needs to seize. There is a lot of guarded and cautious optimism, but this is the one chance there is to make things right. There is also need to develop a culture of trust among the Somalis. They need to have a sense of ownership. After all, it is their country. The international community needs to have spectator status and clear space for Somalis to do this right. They need to see what solutions they have up their sleeves just this time and work with them. The International Community needs to get this right. Darn, we all need to get this right.

Somalia in essence needs 3 kinds of liberations:

1.  Liberation from Islamic Radicalism and extremism. These Somalis we all equate to radicals and extremists are also tired of the same. They are tired of the draconian punishment they have to put up with. The Al-shabaab problem may have gotten some fixing, their core business hub of Kismayu is now in the hands of AMISOM. But there is the possibility that this problem won’t go away. They may disperse across borders and gain some cognizance there. It is also important to mention that when Al-Shabaab started out, it was out of genuine grievances. There is need to watch out so that other similar groups don’t stem up from these same grievances.
2.  Liberation from the captive State. In Somalia, the politics has been an all or nothing kind of politics. Zero-sum game. Predatory. Corrupt. Some people deem this as being worse than the Islamic Radicalism and extremism.
3. Liberation from perpetual liberation. How many times have Somalis thought they were on the verge of liberation, only to be thrown back to the ground? How many times have they had crushed expectations? Is the transition really over this time?

With this said, all we can do is sit and watch as the NEW man attempts to build a failed state from scratch into something new. He needs all the support he can get from the international Community. This is an uphill task. He will need to take baby steps, with support of course, but it is not impossible. This is a chance for liberation, go Somalia GO!